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Have you ever pondered the sheer scale of human existence, both past and future? In a world rife with uncertainty and doubt, it's easy to fall into the trap of thinking our days are numbered. But let's challenge that perspective and delve into a realm where the future is not just a distant horizon but a canvas brimming with potential.
Why do we, as a species, always seem to believe we're living in the end times? This mindset leads to shortsightedness, hindering our ability to create a better world for ourselves and future generations. Yet, what if we are actually at a pivotal moment in human history? To understand this, we must consider the temporal window of humanity and ask a profound question: When will the last human be born?
Modern humans emerged around 200,000 years ago, distinguished by our ability to create tools, tell stories, and work together in large groups. Despite these advancements, life was harsh, and our numbers were few. It took us 150,000 years to reach a population of 2 million. The agricultural revolution marked a turning point, and our numbers began to swell. By the year 1800, we had reached 1 billion, doubling in just 120 years and then again in 50. Today, we stand at approximately 8 billion, with over 117 billion humans having been born and lived over the past two centuries.
About 7% of all humans that ever lived are alive right now. This fact alone should stagger the imagination. But what about the future? The UN estimates that by 2100, our population will peak at around 125 million births per year. However, this is where the uncertainty begins. Will we destroy ourselves through our inventions, or will we find solutions to avert catastrophic risks?
Scenario 1: Staying on Earth
If we remain on our home planet, the fossil record suggests that mammalian species typically survive for about 1 million years. Assuming we follow this pattern, we have another 800,000 years to go. With a stable birth rate, this means roughly 100 trillion humans await birth, a number 850 times greater than those who have ever lived.
Scenario 2: Leaving Earth
If we manage to avoid self-destruction and expand beyond our planet, the possibilities are staggering. The solar system offers abundant resources to support many times our current population, allowing us to construct artificial worlds and habitats. This future could see an interconnected civilization spanning the solar system, creating a foundation for an absurd number of individuals.
Scenario 3: People Leave the Solar System
If we consider colonizing 100 billion stars and living there for 10 billion years, each generating 100 million births per year, we could expect a hundred octillion lives to be lived in the future. These numbers are almost unfathomable, yet they may still underestimate the potential.
Our present actions have profound implications for the future. If we screw up the present, countless potential lives may never come to exist. The unborn are the largest, most disenfranchised group, and they depend on us for their very existence. It's crucial to consider the distant future and recognize that our actions today shape the world for generations to come.
In conclusion, we stand at the beginning of something extraordinary, not the end. Let's embrace this perspective and build a world not just for us but for the countless numbers of others yet to come.
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