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The war in Gaza has sparked a fiery debate, not just over its political implications, but over the very count of its human cost. At the heart of this controversy is the Hamas-run Health Ministry, the sole institution providing detailed death tolls. But as the conflict rages on, these figures have become more contentious, raising questions about their reliability and the methodology behind them.
From the onset of the conflict, the Health Ministry has been the go-to source for casualty figures, collecting data from hospitals and updating a central list with names, ages, and identification numbers. Studies have deemed this list trustworthy, even earning a nod from Israeli intelligence in January. Yet, as the war drags on, the system for establishing these figures has crumbled, with over three-quarters of hospitals damaged or destroyed. Now, the ministry leans on media reports and eyewitness testimony, leading to an increasing number of unidentified individuals in the count.
The credibility of these numbers has come under fire, especially from Israeli authorities, who argue that the data quality is deteriorating. However, some independent analysts suggest that the Gaza death toll might be vastly underestimated. A Lancet study in July estimated that at least 186,000 Palestinians likely died due to the conflict, a figure that seems staggering compared to the Health Ministry's count.
Michael Spaget, a professor at the Royal Holloway University of London and chair of Every Casualty Counts, offers some clarity. He views the Health Ministry's list of 28,185 as a "highly credible rock-bottom minimum," but the additional 10,000 deaths that bring the total to 39,000 remain unexplained and lack a clear methodology.
The Lancet study, which Spaget dismisses as "more of a joke than a study," attempted to draw parallels between Gaza and 13 other conflicts, using flawed measurements for indirect deaths. This approach, he argues, is not serious and should be ignored.
Prime Minister Netanyahu recently claimed that the Gaza war has one of the lowest ratios of combatants to non-combatants in the history of urban warfare. However, Spaget refutes this claim, pointing to the Health Ministry's latest figures, which include 3,500 new deaths, 1,656 of them children, since the invasion of Rafah began.
Once the fighting ceases, establishing the true toll of the war will be a monumental task, likely taking over a decade. The Health Ministry's detailed lists, despite their flaws, are a gold mine of information that will serve as the foundation for this work. Every Casualty Counts aims to recognize each death as an individual tragedy, compiling as complete a list as possible and chronicling the circumstances of each person's death.
In the end, the true toll of the Gaza conflict is not just a number but a somber reminder of the human cost of war. As we strive for accuracy in these figures, we also honor the lives lost and the stories that each number represents.
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