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The presidential race has taken a dramatic turn, and the question on everyone's mind is clear: How do voters perceive Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner? Today, we delve into the first poll results to gauge public sentiment, just as Harris used her first rally as the presumptive nominee to confront Donald Trump head-on.
We've seen policies from Trump's Extreme Project 2025 that could potentially weaken the middle class. Harris emphasizes the need to take these threats seriously, highlighting Trump's intentions to cut Social Security and Medicare while providing tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations.
The polls reveal a tight race, with Trump at 49% and Harris at 46%—a mere three-point margin, well within the margin of error. This is a stark contrast to the previous six-point lead Biden had over Trump. Among Democrats, Harris enjoys near-total consolidation, while Trump holds a similar advantage among Republicans. Among independents, however, the race is closer, with Trump at 46% and Harris at 43%.
Joe Biden struggled to maintain the Democratic coalition, but Harris appears to be gaining ground. The poll, conducted with the same group of people in April and June, shows significant movement. Harris has turned a seven-point advantage for Trump among young voters into a four-point lead. Among black voters, her advantage has grown from 47 to 63 percentage points. While Harris has narrowed Trump's lead among Hispanic voters, he still holds a slight advantage within the margin of error. Harris has also increased her lead among female voters.
The poll reveals a fascinating split among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. When asked if they want Harris to continue Biden's policies or take the country in a new direction, 53% opt for continuity, while 47% seek change. This near-even split will be intriguing to watch as Harris campaigns.
The dynamics of voting have shifted with Harris as the nominee. Now, 50% of her supporters say they are voting for her, while the other 50% are voting against Trump. This is a significant change from Biden's campaign, where two-thirds of his votes were cast against Trump.
These numbers indicate a collective exhale from the Democratic party, as they rally behind Harris. The key demographic groups are starting to come back to the Democratic fold, which could be critical in the closely contested battleground states.
As we look at these national numbers, we must remember that the battleground states will ultimately decide the presidency. The question remains: Where are those crucial 100,000 to 150,000 voters in those seven critical states? Their decisions will shape the outcome of the election.
Harris's rise has energized the Democratic party, but the enthusiasm must translate into votes from independent voters, who are currently favoring Trump. The next few months will be pivotal as Harris campaigns to solidify her position and connect with the American people. The political stage is set, and Harris is ready to take center stage.
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