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The security cabinet of Israel convened amidst escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned the meeting to deliberate on amplifying their reaction to Saturday's deadly rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. To shed light on this unfolding situation, let's explore the possible scenarios with military analyst Frank Ledwich.
What transpired is a mystery wrapped in the fog of war. The attack targeted the Druze community, an unusual choice, and took place in the Golan Heights—a region claimed by both Syria and Israel. While Israel presents evidence implicating Hezbollah, the group itself denies any involvement. Amidst the conflicting accounts, one must consider the plausible scenarios. Could it be a rogue group or an accidental targeting? The uncertainty lingers.
Hezbollah's denial is significant, marking the first time they've denied involvement in hundreds of attacks on Israel over recent months. This adds to the intrigue of the incident. Despite the mystery, one thing is clear: Israel is determined to retaliate against Hezbollah.
Israel's vow to strike back hard has raised questions about the nature of the impending response. Over the past nine months, Israel has conducted air strikes, eliminating about a quarter of Hezbollah's senior leadership. The expected escalation, however, is unlikely to result in a full-scale war. Neither side seeks such a conflict, and neither has public support for it.
Instead of a massive intervention reminiscent of the 2006 Lebanon War, we should anticipate an increase in the intensity of Israeli air attacks. These will target pre-identified sites, such as missile launching pads, which Israel has been monitoring for over 15 years. Hezbollah's primary threat lies not in its 50,000 well-trained troops but in its missile force, capable of inflicting significant casualties in Israel. This knowledge guides Israel's strategic approach.
In conclusion, while Israel's response promises to be swift and forceful, it is likely to be carefully calculated to avoid the catastrophic consequences of a large-scale conflict. The situation remains tense, but the path to resolution lies in targeted strikes rather than a full-blown war. As we navigate these uncertain times, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution.
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