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The chess pieces are set, and the game is a high-stakes one with the European Union initiating entry negotiations with Ukraine. Amidst this geopolitical dance, the question looms: How will Vladimir Putin respond to these talks in Luxembourg? While predictions are treacherous terrain, the canvas of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is painted with stark contrasts.
The war, now protracted, has been a strategic boon for Russia, while Ukraine grapples with devastating consequences. The longer the conflict persists, the more it favors the Russian regime, which boasts a seemingly endless supply of resources and manpower. "Exhausting and depleting Ukraine changes Ukraine," one expert notes, "and Russia has endless resources to prosecute this war."
Does Putin seek a ceasefire? The answer is not straightforward. With the Russian economy and identity now firmly rooted in warfare, Putin's grip on power is tied to the continuation of this grand conflict. In his mind, the battle is not merely against Ukraine but against the United States and NATO. A ceasefire is not on his immediate horizon, as he finds motivation in the propaganda of a perpetual war.
The West's sanctions, which have failed to impact the lifeblood of the Russian economy—oil and gas—allow Putin to continue feeding his war machine. While ordinary Russians suffer, the military machine rolls on. Additionally, Western aid to Ukraine has been sluggish, unreliable, and limited, enabling Putin to capitalize on the West's hesitance to intervene more robustly.
Despite NATO's military prowess, which could have ended the conflict on day one, the war rages on, with the West seemingly content to let it continue as long as Ukrainian lives are the only ones lost. Putin is acutely aware of this dynamic, using it to his advantage.
Putin's demands for peace negotiations areoutrageous: full control over four parts of Ukraine, the lifting of all sanctions, and a Ukrainian pledge never to join NATO. These conditions are not only impossible for Ukraine to accept but also represent an offer that is inherently designed to fail. Putin is, in essence, asking Ukraine to disarm while he rearms and prepares to seize more territory.
As for the survival of Putin's regime post-Putin, the prospects are uncertain. His personalized rule lacks a succession plan, and history suggests that the collapse of such regimes often leads to instability. Putin's presence is the fulcrum of the Russian state's equilibrium, and without him, maintaining "Putinism" could prove challenging.
In conclusion, as the European Union and Ukraine engage in negotiations, the specter of Putin's strategy looms large. The war grinds on, and the future remains as unpredictable as it is perilous. Will the West's strategy shift? Can Ukraine find the strength to resist? The answers to these questions will shape the course of history in Europe and beyond.
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