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In the wake of Ismael Hania's assassination, the Middle East braces for a new chapter in the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel. The funeral service in Doha, attended by numerous officials and religious leaders, signifies the profound impact Hania's death has on the region. As the dust settles, the question that looms large is who will succeed him as the leader of Hamas's political wing.
Speculation abounds regarding potential successors. Yashia Sinir, accused of orchestrating the October 7th terror attacks, is seen as a more radical figure but is believed to be hiding in Gaza's tunnel network. Another contender is Khed Mishal, a moderate with strong ties to Qatar and Turkey, but strained relations with Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah due to his support for the 2011 Arab Spring protests. Khalil Alaya, a senior Hamas leader in exile, has also been mentioned as a possible successor.
The selection process is fraught with challenges, as many members of Hamas's main consultative body, the Shur Council, are in Gaza, making a full leadership meeting unlikely. The new leader will have to navigate the complex landscape of continuing the fight with Israel while representing Hamas on the world stage.
Hamas's ideology and support among Palestinians in the West Bank remain unchanged, despite the ongoing conflict. The assassination of Hania has been met with mixed reactions, with some viewing it as a setback for ceasefire talks and the release of hostages. The funeral in Doha and the potential expulsion of Hamas from the city under a proposed deal highlight the intricate diplomatic dance between Qatar, Israel, and the United States.
Iran's involvement in the discussions within Hamas is significant, though it is not expected to wield as much influence as it does with Hezbollah. The assassination of Hania has been seen as a violation of Iranian sovereignty, prompting speculation about a strong, coordinated response from Iran and its proxies, including rocket and drone attacks.
The United States, while concerned about the recent developments, appears to have minimal influence over the parties involved, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, who seems determined to continue the conflict. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation if the missiles and rockets are not intercepted.
As the region navigates this uncertain terrain, the future of Hamas and the broader implications of Hania's assassination remain to be seen. One thing is clear: the road ahead is fraught with challenges and the potential for further conflict.
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