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Food security has been a cornerstone of China's policy agenda for decades, yet the confluence of the trade war with the US, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened Beijing's urgency to achieve self-sufficiency. How can a nation with a population of over 1.4 billion ensure that its citizens are well-fed amidst global uncertainties?
President Xi Jinping's ominous warning in 2022, "We will fall under others’ control if we do not hold our rice bowl steady," underscores the gravity of the situation. As China's economy has soared to become the world's second-largest, the rapid urbanization has exerted immense pressure on its farmland. Concurrently, the average Chinese diet has evolved to include more meat, dairy, and processed foods, further straining the agricultural sector.
China's agricultural landscape presents a stark reality: less than 12% of its land is considered arable, according to the World Bank. This figure pales in comparison to the US, which has 17% of its land arable despite being roughly the same size but with only a quarter of China's population. The resistance to genetically modified (GM) crops and the fear of dependence on imported GM seeds compound these challenges. Moreover, inefficiency plagues the sector, with corn output per hectare in China being 40% lower than in the US.
Faced with these challenges, Beijing has been employing a multifaceted approach to bolster its food security. One strategy involves forging closer agricultural ties with allies such as Brazil, which now supplies around 20% of China's agricultural imports. Diversification of import sources is another tactic, with over 100 agricultural cooperation agreements signed with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Domestically, authorities have reclaimed more than 170,000 hectares of farmland since 2021. After years of controversy, the government has preliminarily greenlit 37 GM corn varieties and 14 soybean varieties for planting. However, experts argue that Beijing's capacity to align farmers' cropping plans with its self-sufficiency targets is limited, given the average farm size in China is less than one hectare.
Despite these measures, the specter of climate change looms large. Increasingly severe floods and droughts are hindering China's farm production, pushing the focus on food security to intensify. Can China bridge the gap between its agricultural limitations and its growing demand for food? What role will technology and international cooperation play in this grand chess game of food security?
As we navigate the complexities of this issue, one thing is clear: the future of China's food security is a puzzle that requires both domestic innovation and global collaboration to solve. Will Beijing's strategies be enough to secure the food bowl for its vast population, or will it need to rely more heavily on the kindness of strangers? The answer is a question of survival, not just for China, but for the world at large.
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